Security is a broad, multifaceted concept with many components. We live in a world of international law, diplomacy, and global integrated economy, so security is not just about having a strong army as it was in the medieval times (when large states absorbed smaller ones), but a set of political, economic, social, military, and legal measures to protect the existing state and social order, territorial integrity, and independence of a state.
In the modern world, relatively small countries like the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait or Singapore do not have large armies and their military expenditures are accordingly modest, but from an economic standpoint, these countries have managed to attract the economic might of such hegemonic states that no country in the world would encroach upon their territorial integrity. There are a myriad of international legal factors capable of relegating aggressive countries to the dustbin of history. One example is the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the anti-Russian sanctions that followed.
However, the concept of security in Armenia has a somewhat different nature. Being a small country with a small population and a lagging economy, Armenia is trying to turn its territory into a springboard for third countries and thus establish its security. This is an absolutely irrational and erroneous understanding of state security.
The only correct way for Armenians and their leadership to ensure the territorial integrity of their country is to establish political-diplomatic and economic ties with neighboring countries, join the system of regional security, based on good neighborliness and economic benefit of all neighboring countries. Any other alternative, where one or another territory becomes a “gray zone”, poses a threat to all other countries in the region, making them objects of pursuit.
Azerbaijan has resolved the Karabakh issue and fully established sovereignty over its territory. However, in the geopolitical configuration, this circumstance has opened a new chapter of relations. Since the issue of the Karabakh conflict was solved on the plane of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, a number of geopolitical players could not interfere openly, although at the level of the UN Security Council and EU institutions, France never hid its hostility towards Azerbaijan. The hostility was never concealed, yet nothing could be done against us. Now, after the end of the conflict and the emergence of opportunities for signing a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, France saw an opportunity for itself – to dilute Russian influence in Armenia and strengthen its own. However, the difference between Russia and France is that Russia is directly close to the South Caucasus region, while France is far away and cannot influence the situation in the region in any emergency situation.
“France is studying Armenia’s defense needs. President Emmanuel Macron is personally monitoring the situation, as this issue is extremely important for France. He said that our absolute goal is the integrity, sovereignty and protection of the Armenian population. We have launched a defense mission in the country, which did not exist until today, which will allow daily contact with the Armenian army and authorities to explore their defense and protection needs. In any case, we are considering requests coming from Armenia so that they can defend themselves,” French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecornu said in an interview with Franceinfo radio station.
However, he also added that he does not believe that France can protect the territorial integrity of Armenia through military intervention.
Who France is and what its geopolitical goals in the world are, is clear to everyone, and has been for a long time. This is a colonial empire, which, in essence, has not yet dissolved its colonies; it has reformed them in a modern way, granting them state independence, but depriving them of economic independence, with all the capital and resources of these countries in the hands of France.
In the conditions of geopolitical tension with Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran (and only in the matter of the Karabakh conflict do the interests of France and Iran coincide, but the ayatollahs certainly wouldn’t want to have NATO bases at their borders), the territory of Armenia becomes a center of tension and a focus of confrontation, threatening the territorial integrity of all the countries in the region. Let us note immediately that if someone in Armenia dreams of making the country a stronghold of France, they should first study the experience of Lebanon, where ethnic Armenians compactly reside.
As of today, Lebanon, once a potentially wealthy developing country with Mediterranean ports, has turned into a poverty-stricken state divided among geopolitical centers, and periodically shelled by Israel. Financial influxes from Middle Eastern monarchies into the banking sector ceased, leading to an economic collapse, not without the meddling hand of France. However, Lebanon still has some fortune, it has access to the open sea, thus French aircraft carriers may have interests there. In the case of Armenia, however, French interests threaten to bring about major troubles. Firstly, Yerevan will not be allowed to become a conduit for France’s interests in the region. Secondly, the former outpost strategy of Armenia has not yielded any positive results for the country over the last 30 years. Continuing with this policy will lead it to a disaster.
Nijat Hajiyev
Translated from Minval.az
