Pashinyan also criticised the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the Garabagh region of Azerbaijan, saying that it “does not fulfill its task”.
“The situation with security in Armenia, as well as the purchase of weapons and ammunition, were connected with Russia by 99.999 per cent. However, today, when Russia itself needs weapons and ammunition, it is clear that even if it wanted, it would be unable to meet Armenia’s security needs,” Pashinyan said, adding that “Armenia has realised its strategic mistake and now is trying to diversify its security strategy”.
This is likely to refer to the pro-Western statements of Armenian politicians. Pashinyan’s government is showing a pro-Western course, but mostly in words, as Moscow remains Yerevan’s main military and economic ally. However, pro-Western rhetoric brings Armenia some additional bonuses in the West in the form of critical remarks made by French diplomats and the US Department of State about Azerbaijan’s policy.
Besides the pro-Western statements, Armenia is trying to improve its partnership with India. Currently, New Delhi is selling 155-mm artillery guns to Armenia, which is a response to the French long-range Caesar howitzer, missile systems and other types of weapons. This is the Indian response to Azerbaijan’s cooperation with the Turkish-Pakistani bloc. India sees such a policy as a way to counter Pakistan. These are powerful weapons, but they are currently completely insufficient to change the balance of forces on the front, where the Azerbaijani Armed Forces dominate after the defeat of the Armenian Armed Forces in the 44-day second Garabagh war.
Moreover, Armenia seeks closer cooperation with Iran, which supports it because it fears the strengthening of the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance in the South Caucasus. Tehran said that Azerbaijan’s intention to open the Zangazur transport corridor through Armenian territory – a corridor that would connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and Türkiye is a red line for Iran. Currently, cargo between Türkiye and the main territory of Azerbaijan is transported through Iran, which allows the latter to maintain some additional influence on processes in the region.
The talks about diversification, i. e. Armenia’s multi-vector policy have been held for several decades, but only today, it takes on a certain meaning. Armenia maintains ties with Russia, remains its military ally, but at the same time it is trying to strengthen cooperation with Iran, India and the West. This is a paradoxical balancing act on the verge of a foul as Yerevan’s two main military partners, namely, Moscow and Tehran are opponents of the West. However, the US and France render diplomatic support to Armenia. If France is involved in a confrontation with Türkiye in the Mediterranean, and therefore its position has at least some rational reasons, then it is at first glance difficult to detect logic in the actions of the Biden administration.
However, it is worth paying attention to the criticism of Russian policy in Garabagh. Pashinyan says that the Russian military there “does not fulfill their tasks”, the Russian peacekeeping forces “do not fulfill their mission according to the Trilateral Statement”.
“There can be two reasons: either the Russian Federation cannot or does not want to maintain control over the Lachin corridor. Both, in our opinion, are problematic.”
The Azerbaijani Armed Forces, having overwhelming superiority, would have entered Khankandi long ago, if not for the Russian troops. Perhaps, this is the maximum that Russia is currently ready to do for Armenia. What would Armenia want? To call a spade a spade, while translating from diplomatic language into ordinary one, the Armenian leadership thinks that “we want Russia to remove the Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin road, i. e., so that Russia should fight for Armenia in Garabagh, it should start a war with Azerbaijan, otherwise we will move closer to Russia’s opponents.”
As there is a military-political alliance between Baku and Ankara based on the Shusha Declaration, this means that Armenia would like to draw Russia into the Russian-Turkish war. The fact that Russia is not involved irritates Yerevan. Pashinyan did not forget to publicly state this in an interview with the Italian newspaper.
Petr Makarov
Caliber.Az
