Landlocked between Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia, Armenia has two major allies from a geostrategic and economic point of view and who have strengthened their support since the start of the war in Ukraine: Russia and the ‘Iran. While France is in the Minsk group, which should impose a certain form of neutrality on it to facilitate negotiations for the peace process between Azerbaijanis and Armenians, it is now arming Yerevan. As for the Armenian diaspora in France, which feels growing new wings since the arrival of Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée, it makes all its neighbors look like dangerous predators who would like to destroy Armenia, taking care not to shout too strong that the country has two dangerous supporters, however problematic for France and Europe: Moscow and Tehran.
It would seem that with the blessing of France, India will soon supply Yerevan with self-propelled “Trajan” guns. This is not the first time Delhi has done this. These weapons are the equivalent of the Caesar guns which are therefore produced in India with the participation of the French company of the military-industrial complex, Nexter Systems. Problem: the delivery of these armaments would pass through Iran before reaching (if all goes well) Armenia.
The least we can say is that Paris is therefore in a dangerous balancing act and is playing with fire by accepting this deal between Yerevan and Delhi. Last month, it was French intelligence sources who confirmed that the operation was already underway and revealed by the Ukrainian services. For Ariel Kogan of I24news.tv, the Israeli continuous news channel, “the arming of Armenia by France could play into Iran’s hands”[2]. Because, it is clear that the risk of these weapons falling into the hands of the Iranians is anything but zero. Even that they join Moscow, not totally meaningless.
But that is not all: the peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, supported by the European Union, must aim since the signing of the tripartite declaration under the aegis of ruse on November 10, 2020, the progressive demilitarization of the region, and in particular from Armenia and Azerbaijan to Karabakh itself. However, for three years, weapons have continued to circulate towards Karabakh from Yerevan. What will Armenia do if not with all these weapons, if not only for Karabakh?
Why today, do the Ukrainian services denounce the action of their ally, France? Because they are convinced that all these weapons will not only be used in Yerevan, which has been helping Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions since the start of the war. As a strategic partner of Armenia, Russia uses its allies to ensure that everyone participates in the war effort and these weapons could well join the bosom of Moscow. The same is true economically of countries like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan which have seen their imports explode for a year and a half from the West and which are obviously arriving in Russia. But here, we are talking about weapons with Armenia. Finally, the I24News journalist specifies to finish painting this black picture of the overbidding of arms supplies in the region: “Moscow could in particular use them to improve its response, while the same weapons are supplied by the West in anticipation of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. This probability is even extremely high, considering the close military cooperation between Russia and Armenia which has two Russian military bases in the country”. Let us recall that during the last violent clashes between the pro-Armenian forces of Karabakh and the Azerbaijani forces, Yerevan had used Iranian drones, once again circumventing the sanctions imposed on this regime as on that of Moscow.
How can France both condemn Russia and help Armenia which helps Russia? It is to understand nothing more. It is since September 2022 and the visit of Armenian Minister of Defense Suren Papikyan to Paris that cooperation has accelerated. Several countries have already denounced this fool’s bargain, starting with Israel, of which Iran remains the number one enemy and Azerbaijan a historical partner for having notably supplied drones to Baku during the second Karabakh war in September 2020.
Sebastien Boussois
