Is the South Caucasus preparing for peace or is this merely an imitation? Will these drawn-out talks end with the signing of a long-awaited peace treaty?
These are not rhetorical questions. There are valid arguments. It is said that Russia, France, Iran are against peace and will not allow a peace agreement to be signed between the two countries.
We know France and Iran are acting in sync on this issue. We know official Paris and Tehran are pursuing the same goals in this region. This is not news. France was one of the main architects of the revolution in Iran 44 years ago. The script for this revolution was written there. Since this is not our topic, we are not sure if we should dwell on it too much.
As for Russia, its attitude is slightly different. Moscow’s position on the Karabakh issue is acceptable if we take a broad perspective. Admittedly, the Kremlin’s Karabakh policy has not been fully filtered and retains impurities. But it has significantly moved away from the traditional approach. This is not because of its love for us, but because of its own interests. Russia wants to resolve the conflict in a way that would benefit it. This is what prolongs and complicates the process.
Moscow is trying to dominate the process. It wants to mediate the negotiations, to be the conductor. However weak it may be, Russia has retained serious possibilities of influence in the South Caucasus. For centuries, everything in the region has been under its control, and if it were to leave, it would end up in a disadvantageous position. This is not just a question of military-political superiority. Russia does retain this superiority here. It has a fleet on the Caspian Sea and military units in Armenia. Russia has the South Caucasus in the palm of its hand. Russia has no rivals here, no alternatives. It can at any time put its army into any Caucasian country, wherever it wants, and make trouble. But Russia has abandoned this traditional tactic in the South Caucasus. The balanced, prudent policy pursued by Azerbaijan has forced Moscow to make serious adjustments and changes in its conduct in the region. Putin is a smart man, a calculating politician. He has realized that if he fights Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia the way he is fighting Ukraine, he will lose by a large margin. And then the West, its military branch NATO, even Iran will take the initiative in the region. The way the West appeared as a savior against the backdrop of Russia’s military and political aggression made it all clear in the Ukrainian war. So, Putin took this into account and reconsidered his policy towards the South Caucasus.
With Azerbaijan’s leadership, this region holds great promise. Mega-projects have been prepared. The restoration of the historic Silk Road and the launch of the Zangezur Corridor have boosted the significance of Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus. We are close to China… Russia knows this. It is in a hurry. It is trying to tread carefully. If it makes a mistake with Azerbaijan, it will not be able to find a place in the world of the future. Putin has to recognize Azerbaijan’s victory!
Armenia, too, is trying to come out of the process with benefits. This is obvious from Pashinyan’s statements. The Prime Minister is preparing his country, his people for a capitulation. He understands, he knows that there is no more room to stall and it is no use.
We are approaching the final stage of the big process. The course of events suggests that soon the war will end, and a peace treaty will be signed. Azerbaijan’s scenario is in play. We are dictating the terms. If the Armenians do not consent to peace and continue their provocation with the hands and mouths of the separatists, we have another option at hand: anti-terrorist operations. The choice is theirs, the decision is Azerbaijan’s.
Azar Aykhan
Translated from Globalinfo.az
