Iran International, a Persian language news website headquartered in Washington, DC, recently published a report claiming that given the increased tensions between Yerevan and Baku, war is more likely to break out between Azerbaijan and Iran. In recent days, relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a boiling point, after the Azerbaijani flag was burned at the European Weightlifting Competition in Armenia by an event organizer and after the Azerbaijani team was booed upon arrival, a move that forced Azerbaijan to withdraw from the European Weightlifting Competition.
This incident occurred after the Armenian government had sent a letter of assurance to the European Weightlifting Federation, claiming that they would supply “necessary security arrangements for all relevant circumstances” for the Azerbaijani team. Following the incident, the European Weightlifting Federation “strongly condemned the incident, considering it extremely serious and a regrettable gesture and an attack on the integrity of sport values and on the universal principle of fair play.”
This unfortunate incident at the European Weightlifting Competition comes after an Azerbaijani soldier went missing while traveling close to the Armenian border with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region a few days ago when bad weather conditions prevailed in the area. Since then, video footage emerged of him in Armenian custody, being beaten and insulted with his hands tied.
The question remains, how do these two incidents bring Baku and Tehran closer to war? The Islamic Republic of Iran has been highly critical of Azerbaijan ever since Baku decided to open up an embassy in Tel Aviv. Soon after it was decided by Baku to open up the embassy, the Azerbaijani Embassy in Iran was attacked by the ayatollah’s regime, and a security guard was killed. Then, there was an assassination attempt against an Azerbaijani member of parliament, Fazil Mustafa, who is critical of Iranian influence and has referred to the Islamic Republic as a “terrorist state.” The Iranians were also found to be responsible for that.
Around the same period of time, the Azerbaijanis have broken up a number of Iranian spy networks inside of Azerbaijan and expelled a number of Iranian diplomats from the country recently. Meanwhile, the border between Azerbaijan and Iran has been quite tense lately, with the Iranians constantly engaging in provocations along the Azerbaijani border. And given present developments in the region, Iran can be expected to engage in further hostile actions towards Azerbaijan, without any sign of abating.
From the Iranian point of view, it is a major threat that the State of Israel is building alliances with the Persian Gulf states to the south and Azerbaijan and Turkey to the east. The Iranians feel that at a time when they are facing protests that threaten the very existence of their regime, they are being sandwiched in-between forces allied with a country, whose prime minister has issued threats of using military force to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. For this reason, the Iranians are trying to break up these alliances. With the Saudis, it appears they are likely to be successful. But with Azerbaijan, they were not successful at all. And for this reason, they want to punish Baku and could likely go as far as backing Armenia in a full-scale confrontation with Azerbaijan.
Already, in the past, the Iranian government proclaimed that the “territorial integrity of Armenia is our red line.” Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran reportedly supplies Armenia with anti-tank missile systems and missiles. There are reports that Armenia may soon obtain drones from the Islamic Republic of Iran as well. In return, Armenia reportedly helps Iran to bypass sanctions and to be their main transit route to Europe. However, the Iranians fear that Azerbaijan may shut down this transit route with the establishment of the Zangezur Corridor, which will connect Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region, thus cutting off Iran from Armenia.
For this reason, the Iranians have an interest to sabotage the peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which requires Armenia to eventually consent to the establishment of this corridor, as the establishment of this corridor will significantly weaken Tehran’s influence in the Caucuses and make it harder for the Iranians to use Armenia to bypass sanctions. And thus, whenever a fire erupts between Yerevan and Baku, Tehran will likely add fuel to the fire rather than bringing in the fire extinguisher, for an Armenia that is at peace with Turkey and Azerbaijan won’t need to support an international pariah like Iran anymore. And that is why the recent tensions between Baku and Yerevan also bring Tehran and Baku closer to war.
Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center and the editor of the Economic Peace Center. She is the author of “Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media.”
