Former Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Tofig Zulfugarov explained in an interview with Minval.az what processes are underway at the moment.
There is a lot of diplomatic activity around the peace treaty right now. Statements are being made, we can see phone conversations between diplomats of different countries and the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia. On the other hand, the statement of the head of the Security Council of Armenia raises doubts with regard to a speedy signing of the peace treaty. What is going on?
Here is what the situation looks like. There is diplomatic correspondence going on. It is based on the five principles that Azerbaijan put forward at the time, but the Armenian side introduced its own adjustments. Then the process halted and now the Azerbaijani side has given Armenia an updated version of the treaty, and the Armenians return it to us with their edits. By agreement between the parties, these documents are developed behind closed doors, and the Russian side, in particular Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, insists on this. He argued that it should be a closed format, and I do not agree with this opinion, but it is what it is.
I think that the Armenian side is constantly leaking information. A consequence of the leaks is the statement of Armen Grigoryan, the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, that “our security consists in ensuring the rights and security of Karabakh Armenians as a result of negotiations with international participation”. This is the same as the status, only they add a form of discussion of it. This is about Armenia being unwilling to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, or willing to recognize it without Karabakh, whose status is supposed to be discussed. To add to the picture, the Armenian proxies in Karabakh say that they will never be part of Azerbaijan.
This is the same thing we have been hearing from Armenia for 30 years, only in a different form. Attempts to annex Azerbaijani territory continue in this form now. It would be wrong to expect something different, because Pashinyan won the elections again after 2020, and his program at the time said that they would not abandon attempts to separate Karabakh from Azerbaijan. They see this separation as salvation.
But it could lead to another conflict, couldn’t it?
What is happening now is a pre-planned process, the result of which can already be seen today. If the Armenians are going to reiterate the positions they have had for 30 years, then I think there is no point in expecting anything good from these negotiations.
There is another noteworthy event: the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia will attend the Munich Security Conference, which will also be attended by the US Secretary of State and President of the European Council Charles Michel, and it is not out of the question that the two heads of state will also meet.
It seems that pressure from Azerbaijan and international institutions is not enough for Armenia to realize that its policy leads to war. In terms of dynamics, they were pursuing the same policy before the 44-day war. They had more than 500 tanks, S-300 systems and a lot of other armament, 30-40,000 personnel on the ground then, but they were defeated. Now it would take one hour for the Azerbaijani commando squad stationed in Hadrut to get to the center of Khankendi, and 45 minutes for the one stationed in Aghdam.
The situation has changed, and it is surprising that Armenia does not see the lack of potential for a policy of annexation of Azerbaijani territory, although it is obvious. In order to continue his rule, Pashinyan uses the same policies as his predecessors and engages in populism. But he will not succeed.
The Armenian side pins high hopes on it as a deterrent or stabilizing factor against Azerbaijan. What do you think about the arrival of the European mission in the region?
The European mission will not prevent a possible conflict. These are Yerevan’s attempts to create a shield, from behind which they will stick their necks out and claim our territories. I should say that the situation in Abkhazia before the war was about the same. There were Russian peacekeepers and the United Nations mission and what did it lead to?
In this case, the Europeans, under pressure from France, are trying to secure some place as those who will influence the situation in the region. I understand that the Russians are not against the idea of creating such an incomprehensible “political marquee” in which everyone will have their place.
The only goal is to continue to control the region through this conflict. Frankly speaking, no one but Azerbaijan is interested in ending this conflict. Azerbaijan does not want mediators, peacekeepers and all the others in its territory. Therefore, it intends to keep Western mediators out and wait for the time when it will be possible to say thank you and goodbye to the Russians.
This is why I think the issue will be closed. Establishing control on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan as per the legislation of Azerbaijan will noticeably reduce Armenia’s activity in its occupation policy, as well as its real capabilities. Because the 25-30,000 Armenians who remain in this enclave is the approximate number of people registered in one housing management office. We have to understand that this is not even a conflict, but an imitation of a conflict. However, all the external players use it very well in their propaganda.
Vyacheslav Volodin said at a meeting with Sakhiba Gafarova that governments that rely on Western institutions “may lose their state”. What was the speaker of the State Duma implying?
If we carefully analyze Russian politics, we will see several levels, each with different objectives. We see statementx on the level of the president of Russia, some statements and movements on the level of the Foreign Ministry, and there is an active Kremlin project called Vardanyan as well. The Kremlin is a multi-faceted structure. If we put aside the demonstrative hatred for the West on the part of Russia, especially in the context of the Ukrainian war, I think the Russians would not mind if they became part of some international mechanism and their peacekeepers were given a vague mandate along with gendarmes from Saint Tropez or “Ramstein”.
The prospects for Russia in the region are obvious: in the absence of a mandate in 2.5 years, we will say goodbye to it. And it will be said confidently, because Russia now is not in a position to go for an open confrontation against the Azerbaijan-Türkiye tandem, it absolutely does not need it, and it does not have enough capacity. Its entire capacity is now engaged in the war in Ukraine.
That is why we already see that French gendarmes and German policemen are also coming to the border where Russian border guards stand, and they all want to be part of an international mission. Therefore, it is important for Azerbaijan to keep foreign forces out of our territory. Baku’s position is based on what President Ilham Aliyev said during a meeting with Putin: the Karabakh conflict has been resolved. This position of the President of Azerbaijan is unchangeable.
Nijat Hajiyev
Translated from Minval.az
