Note that none of the organization’s reports are predicting a war. They simply highlight the fact that the factors are many and the likelihood of war is high.
Commenting on the subject for Globalinfo.Az, international relations analyst Aziz Alibeyli says that the International Crisis Group knows Azerbaijan well and has been making these reports for many years:
“This January report notes the high likelihood of an Azerbaijan-Armenia war among countries at risk of being at war. If we look at this issue through the prism of Western circles, the West took advantage of the war that took place in September 2020. As a result of the war, the West introduced its monopolies into the region. Russia, on the other hand, did not achieve a real result, although it turned a blind eye to the punishment of Armenia. If Russia withdraws from the region, the most important alliance and force, which will immediately take its place in the regional balance of power, will be Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia can neither seriously respond to this now, nor withdraw from the region, and it remains in a state of complete indecision.”
А. Alibeyli believes that, especially looking at the analysis of the last September clashes and the possibilities of international influence, it is clear that the West is very interested in it happening again:
“At the moment they are trying to promptly assert their military presence in Armenia. So why does Azerbaijan overall want to implement the version of the war that both Russia and the West want? Because overall Azerbaijan is pursuing a pragmatic policy with regard to the peace treaty and the settlement of the Zangezur corridor issue. For this purpose, the Middle corridor should pass through the Zangezur corridor. This is an area where the world’s trade is focused. Russia implements the opening of a new trade route through the North-South corridor to India. This could be a fulfillment of Russia’s theory of warm seas, coming from Peter the Great, as part of which they managed to enter the territory of Syria. From this perspective, Russia, the West, Azerbaijan, and Armenia itself all look like interested parties.”
Military expert Adalat Verdiyev notes that the International Crisis Group reviewed the documents signed after the end of the war, including the texts of the joint statements, and correlates them with the processes taking place in the region:
“It is obvious that while Azerbaijan, the winning side, is fulfilling its commitments, Armenia, the defeated side, whose military capacity is currently quite weak, is not. Russia, the guarantor of the fulfillment of the Joint Statement, also estimates the possibility of war as high. Of course, in this case, international organizations believe that the possibility of war is high as well.
“I think it is possible that during this year Azerbaijan will take certain steps to have Armenia honor its commitments, even if there is no war. For three years we have been waiting with great patience and restraint for the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Karabakh, for the mining of these territories to stop, for the delimitation of borders to begin, for the Zangezur corridor to open and, finally, for a peace treaty to be signed. But so far none of that has happened, the Armenian side has been trying to stall these processes in every possible way.”
The expert emphasizes that this is the second mission of the European Union deployed in the territory of Armenia, and it is supposed to be on the conditional border:
“However, Azerbaijan has not yet signed a document specifying where exactly these borders are. Here Armenia is trying to somewhat slow down these processes through the EU. I do not believe that Azerbaijan will be patient and restrained in this matter. Any violation of the ceasefire or any provocation on Armenia’s part will eventually lead to a more serious punishment. Armenia will either fully honor the commitments it has made, or it may be severely punished within a year, perhaps even more than once.”
Gulnar Salimova
