Iranian actions and statements helped to stop a further deterioration of that situation.” That is, he essentially confirmed that Iran had, first, shared intelligence with Armenia and, second, prevented “Azerbaijan’s major offensive”.
Understandably, Mr. Kostanyan is very eager to demonstrate “in a single package” the mythical “strength of the Armenian army”, which allegedly foiled a major Azerbaijani offensive, and the professionalism of Armenian diplomacy, which allegedly secured such effective support from Iran. But in reality…
For a start, if Azerbaijan had really planned a “major offensive”, Iran would not have been able to stop it. Mr. Kostanyan, his superiors and his audience should recall the 44-day war, when there were more “stoppers” with more authority than Iranian “mullahcracy”, when Armenia received intelligence from its allies, and the Azerbaijani army had to break through the defense lines that Armenia had been working on in Karabakh for more than a quarter of a century.
Today, Armenia does not even have the army it had in September 2020. Nor is there a solid defense line on the notional border. One can see on social media what the Armenian army posts on the conditional border look like today. If Azerbaijan had been really preparing a “large-scale offensive” in this situation, it would not have taken much effort for the army to cut Armenia in two at the narrowest part of West Zangezur. No one would have been able to stop it, least of all the Iranian regime.
However, there were all signs that it was Armenia who was preparing an attack, albeit a small one, in September 2022. It first decided to mine the supply routes of the outposts of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the Kalbajar direction. It is, unfortunately, not news that Yerevan has not shelved its plans to reoccupy Kalbajar District. What is interesting here is the role of Iran, which in those days did not stop at squealing about the “inviolability of Armenia’s borders”, but also supplied it with intelligence for this very offensive.
This requires some clarification. The first reports that Iran and Armenia were working together in the field of security and intelligence emerged back in 2008. That was when the information about the exchange of intelligence, the deployment of Iranian reconnaissance stations in the territory of Armenia and joint efforts in the field of agent infiltration came to light. Now Vahan Kostanyan adds new details to this picture: it turns out that Iran supplied Armenia with intelligence prior to its provocative sorties in the Kalbajar direction.
Frankly, it is moot to even speculate as to whether Tehran would have spoken out if Armenia’s provocation had succeeded at the time. But why would Kostanyan reveal such sensitive details in an interview? Did no one explain to him that he should keep quiet about intelligence information and its source?
Of course, it is possible that he is simply incapable of keeping his mouth shut. But Kostanyan’s revelations look more like an attempt at playing a game he himself sees as cunning and subtle. The Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister knows how tense the relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are after the attack on our country’s embassy in Tehran, and now he is adding fuel to the fire. It seems that Armenia was hoping that Iran would now fight with Azerbaijan at its behest, and was extremely disappointed that the Iranian regime is certainly ready to play dirty on the sly, but after Azerbaijan and Turkey’s joint military exercises near the Iranian border it no longer dares to engage in overt confrontation. Too scary. So, Mr. Kostanyan decided to speed things up: after learning about the intelligence exchange between Iran and Armenia, Baku would get angry, demand answers from Iran for its tricks, and then Iran would finally throw a punch.
But it appears that Armenia underestimated not only the strength of the Azerbaijani army, but also the political equanimity of the Azerbaijani leadership. It does not make emotional decisions, and its response is always precise, measured and calculated as to the consequences.
In the end, Mr. Kostanyan once again demonstrated that the biggest friend of “Christian Armenia” is Iranian mullahcracy, which is not only willing to “French-kiss” those who keep pigs in mosques, but also provide them with intelligence. One wonders how members of the local fan club of the Iranian regime will twist themselves to crawl out from under the weight of Kostanyan’s revelations now.
